The churn-risk model scores every active customer nightly on their likelihood to lapse; the first sign of a slip starts the journey the next day.
The problem Nothing watches an active customer for the first 49 days of a slip, and the one thing we then send makes it worse.
Why it happens Lapse is never announced. The record shows two drivers: missed auctions (2,310 missing-notification mentions) and eroded belief that bidding is still worth it (price perception, 1,952 mentions, 66% negative), compounded by win value that varies trip to trip. Some of it is a decision, some of it is drift, and none of it reaches us as a signal.
The behaviour we are driving They come back and transact within the 60-day window. Any transaction, an auction, a buy-now or an instant win, ends the episode that instant.
The job to be done “Give me a reason before I forget you exist: one useful message, one charming nudge, then respect.”
The churn-risk model re-scores every active customer's behaviour nightly; a shift in their churn band, never a calendar timer, is what opens the journey.
Q4 marketing model, Business Case tab, exported 29 Sep 2026: volumes checked by Analytics 8 Sep 2026; organic and target rates measured against holdout and confirmed by Analytics; a buyer's month valued at £30 an upgrade, 1.29 upgrades in a first-purchase month and 1.67 after; net is gross at the 23% take rate.
| Model row | Worked volume a month | Rate | Value per active month | Gross a year | Net a year | Q4, driven | Q4, in quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| active buyers at risk (64.7k marketable, Sept) DEFEND | 11,194 About 11,000 buyers enter the flow each month on the band state change (Braze counts; Michael confirmed 10 Sep these are monthly volumes). Re-entries count as new episodes, which is how the built journey works. | 27.3% vs 21% organic | £30 an active month (one upgrade) × 6.82 months × 12 a year | £1,385,119 | £318,577 | £80,299 | £23,356 |
| session active users at risk DEFEND | 9,082 About 9,000 session users enter the flow each month on the band state change (Braze counts). Re-entries count as new episodes. | 6.5% vs 5% organic | £30 an active month (one upgrade) × 6.82 months × 12 a year | £267,566 | £61,540 | £15,511 | £4,512 |
Q4 2026: £95,810 net on the driven basis (Oct £32,284, Nov £31,243, Dec £32,284); £27,868 landing inside the quarter. Driven: months active credited to Q4, pro rata by days live from the launch, the basis the Q4 V2MOM carries. In quarter: only the months that fall in October to December (Tony, 10 Sep 2026: the forecast Marketing submits). Net is gross at the 23% take rate. Launch 1 October 2026.
Still to confirm The at-risk segment is being redefined (item 19): the churn score cannot flag active buyers. The 61 to 90 day segment's rates were measured 8 Sep, rough until the holdouts mature (item 6). Two segments, below; the churn-risk score is live
Ladders to Reactivation (Defend): month-three retention 18.0%. Metric moved M3 retention %. Evidence B, benchmark.
The planned case, a 30% lift in conversion, as presented to the board on 23 Sep 2026 (the Sizing tab behind the model's Business Case tab): volumes checked by Analytics (Ivi, 8 Sep 2026); organic and target rates measured against holdout and confirmed by Analytics; a buyer's month valued at £30 an upgrade, 1.29 upgrades in a first-purchase month and 1.67 in later months (the 20 Sep change; the earlier £172k counted one upgrade a month); net is gross at the 23% take rate (agreed 8 Sep 2026). Source: Q4 2026 Marketing Model, Business Case (output) and Sizing tabs, exported 2026-09-29 (the live model). Every figure is incremental of the customers who would have returned anyway: worked volume × (target rate − organic rate) × months active × times a year × value per active month.
Each engineering-row chip is coloured by the ask: APP AND JOURNEY OWNED COMPUTED TRAIT · ANALYTICS READY · NOTHING TO BRIEF
| The moment | Phase 1, ships now | Phase 2, waits on engineering | Who builds it |
|---|---|---|---|
on the map: 1 · The save message Touch 1, the save email | email The generic day-50 email becomes a personalised save: their usual route and a true from-price where held, the recognition line for power users, and the generic… | Nothing waits | Braze · Braze buildAnalytics · computed traitDesign · copy and creative |
on the map: 1 · The save message Touch 1, the save push | push The generic day-50 push becomes the same personalised save in one glanceable line, deep-linked to their route. | Nothing waits | Braze · Braze buildAnalytics · computed traitDesign · copy only |
on the map: 2 · The second knock Touch 2, the second knock | push, email The old canvas’s week-two repeat, same content again to anyone without a session, becomes one channel-switched knock gated on unseen, with the episode closing after it… | Nothing waits | Braze · logic changeDesign · copy and creative |
on the map: 3 · Designed silence, against today's canvas The estate around the episode | The seasonal weekly stands down for open save episodes. | Nothing waits | Braze · logic change |
| No usable channel | in-app message The only message is capture a channel first. | Nothing waits | Marketing · copy only |
| The control group | The old canvas’s control proved the negative read; the new one proves the replacement earns its place. | Nothing waits | Analytics |
| Not eligible at entry | Nothing: the boundary is the design. | Nothing waits | Marketing · copy only |
The words are on the journey map above. A D number opens that row of the Engineering brief; the engineering board uses the same numbers. Live sends not named here continue unchanged. Before anything in this journey goes live: One lapse-owner: the old canvas stops as this journey starts; Broadcasts stand down for owned episodes; The day-60 hand-off exists before anyone reaches it.
| The question | Owner |
|---|---|
| Reachable audience by channel for the lapsing band, and daily entry volume at the proposed threshold. | Blocks launch Analytics: Ivi and Ben |
| The band or score for Braze selection: which score movement opens an episode, per persona. | Blocks launch Analytics: Ivi and Ben |
| The retiring canvas’s exact entry segment, its re-entry setting, and its control split: one console look at the entry step. | Lisa, and the Braze developer |
| The retiring canvas’s conversion setting. | Lisa, and the Braze developer |
| Confirm where every button lands: sign the register 'Where every tap lands' on this matrix against the deep-link availability list, one pass for the journey (Sheran, 6 Sep 2026, ruling J5-12). | Product |